Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
