Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels The Villans' Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.