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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd